The B61-12’s 0.3 kt minimum yield matches Braun’s estimate, and its precision (via JDAM-like guidance) and delivery platform (e.g., F-35A, operated by Israel) fit the geopolitical narrative of a coercive strike to influence the new Syrian regime or signal Russia.

The 0.3 kt yield’s consistency with the B61-12 strengthens the case for an IAEA investigation. Gamma spectroscopy would confirm whether fission products (e.g., 137Cs) from a B61-12 detonation are present, resolving the debate.